Hary Walsh wrote:
quoted 17 lines "Random" == Random Junk <jsd@gamespot.com> writes:> >>>>> "Random" == Random Junk <jsd@gamespot.com> writes:
>
> Random> what if an infinite number of monkeys wrote the best idm
> Random> tune ever ... hey, not only COULD it happen, but by the
> Random> laws of probability, it HAS to happen!
>
> Firstly, there is no such thing as an infinite number of monkeys.
> Infinity is a construct of the human mind. Secondly, the best IDM
> song doesn't exist. No matter what MTV or Billboard or whoever would
> have you believe, there is no best song. Any quest to create better
> music than XYZ is inherently dommed to failure.
>
>
>
> -hjw
> "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."
> --Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.
...Actually, the whole monkeys/infinity thing is logically flawed in
a more basic way in that it employs a "gambler's fallacy". The odds that
one will succeed (or "win" in the case of the gambler) in an endeavor do
NOT increase simply because one did not do so the last time, given that
the "pool" of risk is not decreased. The odds remain the same every time
each individual monkey does something construed as an attempt. What the
concept of randomness requires to be even remotely feasible is an
infinite amount of TIME - and HJW is right in that we have no basis on
which to assume an infinite set of ANYTHING.
Adding the statement that the successful attempt HAS to happen
incorporates necessity, which is enough to fail you in any intro level
Philosophy course. I like both Bjork and the Cylob stuff. "Why can't we
all just get along?"
Schoolmarmin',
jeff